WY2016 California March Is “In Like a Lion”

NOTE: Storm 53 should be Storm 54.
NOTE: Storm 54 should be Storm 55.
I’m just leaving it.

FRIDAY, 160304 0949PST

Storm 53-1.GIF

Tons of subtropical moisture parked off shore the morning of Friday, 160304, is ready to roll in, backed up by two strong to major storm systems and the El Niño-powered Jet Stream

The jet stream is making a major incursion inland this weekend and bringing with it two major storms for the Pacific Southwest on Saturday 160305 and Sunday 160306. These storms will be warm, wet and windy (southwest winds).

As of this AM, the jet stream split has once again withdrawn off the California shore. It won’t do us much good splitting way out there.  Where the jet stream splits in two, breaks apart or bows upward, that supports high pressure, and high pressure suppresses storm formation.

Storm-53-and-jetstream160304.jpg

But by Sunday, the jet stream split has come ashore. Storm activity will be strong up to the split point.  The split point has rarely moved beyond its spot offshore this entire Water Year, so when this happens, weather watchers here get so excited they nearly wet their pants, do a spit take with their coffee on their computer monitors and start blogging. If that split point moves any farther east, the symptoms of excitement become even worse. For that reason, I’m withholding publication of the forecast of the jet stream for Monday.

Screen Shot 2016-03-04 at 09.41.34 AM.png

Forecast Sunday Jet

Let’s take a tour of National Weather Service websites and see what’s expected…

NWS EUREKA, CA. (Coastal NorCal)
Flood watch,  Saturday March 5 1200 PST – Sunday Match 6 1000 PST
Snow Level 4000′ Saturday, 3000′ Sunday
Saturday storm heavy rain, Sunday storm moderate rain

NWS SAN FRANCISCO (Bay Area)
Street and urban flooding, high winds

NWS SACRAMENTO (Inland NorCal)
High winds, general winter weather

NWS HANFORD, CA. (Inland CenCal)
Flash flood watch, debris flows, downed trees, 2-4″ of rain likely from two storms – Southern Sierra and foothills, Saturday 160305 1800 PST – Monday 160307 1200 PST
Winter Storm Warning, high southwest winds, zero to 2 ft. of new snow  – Eastern Sierra slopes – Saturday 160305 1600PST to  Monday, 160307 2200 PST.
Lightning, gusty southwest winds, heavy rain – San Joaquin Valley, Friday 160304 1200-1800 PST and Saturday 160305 1200-1800 PST and Sunday 160306 1200-1800 PST and Monday 160304 1200-1800 PST.

NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD, CA. (Southern Central CA Coast, SoCal)
High surf. That’s it. Just some high surf.

This blog entry covers expected impact from Storms 53 and 54.

Weather Charts

image04.gif

Today – A front sits off the west coast. A developing polar cyclone is at its western end. The cyclone moves rapidly east today, and becomes storm 53.

 

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Saturday, 160304. Storm 53 by the end of Saturday is onshore over Nevada and California. Storm 54 is born to the west and by day’s end moves inland, over California and Oregon. These two storms should have the most impact in Central California.

 

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