WY2016 Stable Air Regime 10

The End Is Near

Stable Air Regime 10 builds in on the US West Coast starting Tuesday, 160223. It is supported by a split in the jet stream offshore. Which brings up a point – this is starting to happen a lot more of late – the wet season is burning out. For half of California, it barely ever got started.

We might have one more shot at strong storms making it ashore in California, though. On model prediction charts, a “Madden-Julien Oscillation” active phase moves westward across the Pacific just far enough to support a solid jet stream into California for maybe a couple of days, and then dissipates. This is shown occurring in early March. Otherwise, unless you live on a California beach, it’ll be hard to tell there is still a strong El Niño in effect. For surfing enthusiasts, El Niño will keep the big swell production humming along by supporting very active weather in the North Pacific all the way into May, looks like.

Stable Air Regime 10.gif
Image: University of Washington – chart showing temperature, wind (1 barb equals 10 knots) and altitude at 500 millibars of air pressure on Tuesday, 160223.  A new high pressure ridge is building on the West Coast. It is supported by a split in the jet stream offshore. If that split can be moved east of California just one more time, we can get just one more session of Pacific storms before the El Niño fades away.

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